PAKISTAN'S CRY: PARITY WITH INDIA
By T.S. Rao
The much-anticipated Pakistani campaign for the US to treat
Islamabad on par with India had finally begun. On the eve of US Congressional
hearings of Indo-US Nuclear Cooperation Agreement of July 18, 2005, the
Pakistani Ambassador to the US, Gen. Jehangir Karamat spilled the beans. In an
interview with Associated Press, Gen. Karamat said "whatever legislation is made
should not be a specific, one time affair just for India; but should leave the
door open for other countries that meet the same criteria and show good
responsibility and satisfy the United States concerns."
Gen Karamat went on to say that "the balance of power in South Asia should not
become so tilted in India's favour, as a result of the US relationship with
India, that Pakistan has to start taking extraordinary measures to ensure a
capability for deterrence and defence."
In this context the first question that arises is whether the Pakistani demand
that it should be brought on par with India in its nuclear status, is
justifiable or not? Now the world media has documented extensively, Islamabad's
nuclear elite's clandestine nuclear proliferation activities to countries like
Iran, Libya and North Korea. If there was no 9/11 and the subsequent US war on
Taliban ruled Afghanistan, Pakistani nuclear scientists would have transferred
technology for producing nuclear weapons to organizations like al-Qaida. Even
now the international community suspects that technology for making "dirty
weapons" was made available to various terrorist outfits by Pakistani nuclear
scientists.
The new irritants in the US security calculus, Iran and North Korea received
considerable amount of assistance from Pakistan in their nuclear weapons
programme. This assistance from Pakistan has been privately acknowledged by both
Tehran and Pyongyang.
All this shows that Pakistan has defaulted on the basics in the rulebook on
nuclear non-proliferation.
The next question is, Pakistan's deterrence and defence is against whom?
Apparently Gen. Karamat is talking about India. The history of South Asia shows,
officially Pakistan started all the four and half wars, (1947-48, April 1965
September 1965, December 1971, and May 1999) against India. Time and again this
has been acknowledged by retired Pakistani Generals.
In the Kargil war of May 1999, a section of Pakistani leadership even talked in
terms of using nuclear weapons. This has considerably alienated international
public opinion against Islamabad's nuclear programme. As one commentator pointed
out "Islamabad puts its fingers on nuclear buttons at slightest provocation from
India. In Kargil war they started the war with a finger on nuclear weapons
thinking India can be bullied. It is a different story that India acted much
more responsibly without giving any chance to Pakistan to enlarge the theatre of
conflict."
In the process Pakistan acquired the image of an irresponsible nuclear weapon
power.
The last question is, how can Pakistan think in terms of parity with India?
India, four times bigger than Pakistan in almost every aspect, is progressing at
a rapid pace than compared to any other country in the region. With its
impeccable democratic traditions and a plural social and political order it is
being considered as a role model to other developing countries.
As compared to this Pakistan went through all forms of governance including an
experiment of a radical Islamic state, imparting training to terrorists. The now
famous Inter Service Intelligence Agency even acted as a conduit in financing
the 9/11 Terrorist attacks in New York and Washington in 2001. Presently,
Pakistan is being headed by a General who usurped power in October 1999 through
unconstitutional methods. But for the US aid in 2001and onwards, Pakistan
economy would have been in shambles.
Many assessments show that given the dynamics of Pakistan, its polity is too
fragile to be trusted for any investment in any sector. Therefore, investments
by Nuclear Supplier Group countries in the nuclear power sector will be too
risky. As one International Atomic Energy Agency Official put it, "enlarging
Pakistan's nuclear base, means creating another North Korea at a later date."
In this backdrop Pakistan talking in terms of parity with India, shows that it
is not able to come out of the cold war syndrome. Pakistan would not have been
able to put forward this argument during the past five decades but for the
support it received first from the US and then from the People's Republic of
China. In the post cold war and 9/11 era, geopolitics is changing rapidly
bringing new alignments and new relationships to the forefront.
However, Pakistan is not going to give up its claims for parity with India. It
may even try to tag itself to India's claims and prevail upon the international
community to treat it on par with India. If such a proposition is going to take
time to materialize, it may try its level best to get the agreement on Indo-US
nuclear cooperation deferred for the time being in the US Congress.
Some commentators do feel that recent Pakistani overtures to Israel are one such
step. They feel that Islamabad is trying to influence the US Congress through
the powerful Jewish lobby.
How far Pakistan succeeded will be known in the coming weeks. The present
indications are that the odds are against Pakistan.
In these circumstances all that India has to do is to allow the Pakistani
lobbying to run its complete course; and allow the US to pin point Pakistani
short comings. -CNF