NATWAR SINGH'S VISIT TO PAKISTAN
By Sreedhar
The three-day official visit of Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh to
Islamabad from October 4, brought in three major confidence building measures
between India and Pakistan. First was the much-debated agreement on making it
obligatory for neither country to notify the other at least 72 hours before
testing ballistic missiles within a radius of 40 kms of International Boundary
and the Line of Control. This was followed by signing a Memorandum of
understanding between Director General Indian Coast Guard and Director General
of Pakistan Maritime Security Agency on establishment of a communication link
between the two. In addition both countries agreed to conduct a joint survey
about the much debated, Sir Creek Island, to demarcate the boundary.
Significant progress was also made by creating an expert group on launching a
truck service between Muzaffarabad and Srinagar and a bus link between Poonch
and Rawalakot. Both sides also agreed on reviving the Indo-Pak joint Commission,
dormant for the last 16 years. Reports coming from Islamabad also indicate that
serious negotiations took place between the two sides on creating a
demilitarized zone in Siachen glacier creating a climate of confidence between
the two countries.
The jarring notes of the September meeting between President Musharaff and Prime
Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh in New York seems to have been kept aside for the
time being.
However, Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shaukat Aziz's statement before the summit
and at the joint Press Conference on October 4, that until and unless a solution
is found to Kashmir issue there cannot be any progress on economic and trade
relations between the two countries, surprised every one.
This also indicated that Pakistani leadership is in a hurry to find a quick
solution to Kashmir before continuing the "unending Indo-Pak negotiations." One
can give two explanations for this Pakistan impatience on "slow progress on the
Kashmir issue, while other issues in the composite dialogue are progressing at
an accelerated pace."
At one level, a section of the Pakistani elite feels that if these talks
continue for another couple of years without the 'core' issue not being
addressed, Pakistani, army will find it extremely difficult to tell its people
that India is enemy number one of Pakistan.
More than a year old progress of Indo-Pakistan talks, has already created
pockets of good will for India in Pakistan and vice-versa. Many Pakistanis have
started feeling that if the momentum continues for some more time, it will not
be too long for the India-Pakistan bhai-bhai groups emerging in both the
countries and torpedoing Pakistani Army's game plan. "Such a development would
mean Islamabad pursued a senseless policy towards India during the past five
decades. And the so called arms build up in Pakistan to defeat the enemy, India,
will be considered by people as an exercise in futility" said one Pakistani
commentator.
At another level, a section of the Pakistani ruling elite, especially in the
armed forces, strongly feel that the nuclear Pakistan is still capable of
imposing a decision on India. The Musharaff government by entering into an
"unending dialogue" is wasting time and energy of Pakistan. They harp on the old
argument that Pakistani trained Jehadis managed to defeat a super power (Soviet
Union) in 1980s; and now with its newly acquired nuclear capability are now
better placed to defeat a country like India.
Even on the geopolitical developments in the post 9/11 global order, they argue
that Great Powers are on a run in places like Iraq.
Therefore, if the dialogue process is not going in the direction in which
Pakistan desires, it should be abandoned and military action should be started
by Pakistan.
These negative assessments of Indo-Pak peace process are also making some
observers to feel that Musharaff government itself is coming under pressure from
the Pakistani elite. If this trend continues for some more time, there can be a
change of government in Islamabad.
In other words, Musharaff and his men have to show some tangible results to this
constituency in Pakistani polity. Otherwise, as some predict, radical Islamic
groups like al-Qaida can move in and destabilize the Indo-Pak peace process.
The immediate question that arises is, what are India's options in this emerging
new scenario? Every one in New Delhi feels that by making Kashmir a 'Core'
issue, Musharaff government is frittering away the gains that have been made by
both the countries during the past one-year by the composite dialogue. As one
Indian Major General told me, " that Pakistani army like any army in the world,
are not political animals. They want quick solution for every thing and any
thing. We must understand this part of Musharaff psyche. Since the boss wants
that way, his number two man downwards sings the some song."
If one accepts this logic, the ideal situation would be to establish military to
military contacts at the earliest. Such a development would give a proper
assessment of Indian intentions and capabilities to the Pakistani elite. The
Pakistani ISI assessments still appears to be cold war vintage, lacking any
realistic assessments.
The way Gen. Musharaff behaved in New York last month clearly indicate that a
contingency plan is being prepared in Islamabad to pull off from the Indo-Pak
peace talks. It is a subtle warning to India too saying that it should address
itself to Kashmir issue on a priority basis. The way Siachen issue was addressed
in the just concluded Natwar Singh's Islamabad visit indicate that India made a
tentative move on this vexed issue. It is a different matter that Indian Foreign
Minister later clarified in Karachi that no time frame has been fixed for
resolving the Siachen issue.
Before the next Indo-Pak foreign ministers meet in January 2006, India may have
to gently remind Pakistanis, that a 58 year old dispute cannot be resolved in
four rounds of talks, where even the basic parameters of the problem are not
settled as yet. "India is talking about the whole of Jammu & Kashmir state prior
to June 1947 and Pakistan is talking about Kashmir valley only. Then how can
there be any discussion between India and Pakistan on the 'core' issue" said
Retd Major Nath who spent long years in J&K fighting Pakistani army and
Pakistani trained terrorist. -CNF