GENERAL MUSHARRAF'S BLUFF IN NEW YORK
By T S Rao
The Indian Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh's meeting
with Pakistani President; Gen Pervez Musharraf in New York on September 17,
turned out to be much ado about nothing. The graphic account of India- Pakistan
encounter, as given in the media indicate three things.
First, the Pakistani side's assessment of India proved to be wrong. They took
the BJP assessment of the Prime Minister seriously and assumed that Dr. Manmohan
Singh is a weak Prime Minister. They presumed that they could easily pressurize
Dr. Singh. In that direction the Pakistani Media managers created an atmosphere
where they can get whatever they ask from the Indian side. Even a seasoned
person like Gen. Jehangir Karamat, Pakistan's Ambassador to the US, thought it
is prudent to disclose to the Press what Pakistan expects from Dr. Manmohan
Singh before the actual meeting by the leaders of both the countries.
All these assessments from the Pakistani side proved to be wrong. In the actual
meeting between both the leaders, Dr. Singh not only acted decisively but also
put the Pakistani side on the defensive.
Second, according to a THE HINDU report, the Pakistani President was in an
"impatient" mood and wanted India to give "visible concessions." The Pakistani
leader's immediate objective was to make Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agree to
a tangible reduction of the Indian security forces in the Kashmir Valley.
However, the General had queered the pitch by his performance at the United
Nations on September 17.
In that speech, the Pakistani leader had equated Kashmir with Palestine and
harked back to the Security Council resolutions.
Even before the General could get into his rhythm at the Indo-Pak meet, Foreign
Minister Natwar Singh told him that his United Nations speech was unhelpful. The
Pakistan President tried to tell his Indian interlocutors that he had said
nothing new, nothing that had not been said before.
The Foreign Minister stood his ground and quietly asked an aide to get him a
copy of the Pakistani leader's speech at the United Nations General Assembly in
September 2004. The General was politely requested to point out where in the
2004 speech was there any comparable reference to the Security Council
resolutions or the equating of Kashmir with Palestine.
It was also pointed out to the General that he had demonstrated the same
restraint in his speeches at Bandung and in New Delhi earlier this year. On
neither of the occasions had he sought to invoke the United Nations resolutions.
This departure in tone and tenor was not conducive to any forward movement in
the India-Pakistan relationship.
Taken aback by the polite but aggressive talkback by the Indian side, the
General tried to suggest that the speech was drafted at the junior level in the
Pakistan foreign office!
Nor could the General satisfy the Indian side that he was doing enough to
control the flow of terror.
He said he had taken steps that would produce results. The Indian side was
inclined to trust him but would also "verify it."
This school boyish behavior by Gen. Musharraf has created doubts in the Indian
camp about his desire to move forward in Indo-Pak talks. After a long time the
Indian camp started discreetly pointing to the media, that the General had lost
the trust of Dr. Manmohan Singh. Later Dr. Singh told the media that India
cannot decide who would rule Pakistan; and it will continue to do business with
the General. Every one noticed the missing warmth in Dr. Singh's statement about
the General.
Lastly, Pakistan thought that the US would go in a big way to pressurize India
to make concessions to Islamabad. This optimism is based on the concessions made
by the US in terms of arms and equipment (for instance the US agreed to supply
one more squadron of f-16 fighter aircraft), and the warmth with which Pakistan
was referred to in the US Congressional debates etc.
However, the US has not made any such move. Once again according to media
reports, the US Secretary of State Dr. Condolezza Rice made a courtesy call on
Dr. Manmohan Singh and pleaded with him to make concessions to Gen. Musharraf to
market himself in Islamabad. Dr. Singh stood his ground firmly by explaining to
Dr. Rice about continuation of terrorism by Pakistan. The matter ended then and
there itself.
All this leads one to conclude that Gen. Musharraf lost the good will and trust
among his Indian counter parts towards him. The question that rises is where do
we go from here on Indo-Pak relations. No one in India can now take him
seriously. As one commentator put it "Gen. Musharraf is a slippery customer. He
can change his stand in a moments notice with out caring what he had agreed to
previously." That means he can roll back to terrorism and violence at any moment
to acquire a pressure point vis--vis India. "He will not put an end to terror
tap. It is his last option against India and force New Delhi to make concessions
to Islamabad. India is expecting too much from him", said one observer.
If Gen. Musharraf's domestic pressures are increasing, how can he move forward
and make any settlement with India? Does this mean another regime change in
Islamabad is in offing? -CNF
(The Writer is an Adviser to SAIRSS, New Delhi)