INDIA: TROUBLED NEIGHBOURHOOD
By Sita
The developments of the past few years
in India's neighbourhood
give a complex picture. After decades of independence some of the countries are
still debating what should be the rules of governance of their state?
Take the case of
Pakistan. It has experimented
all types of governance known in any political science text book-from
authoritarianism to democracy; and is yet to evolve coherent political
institutions. The debate in
Pakistan's polity today is whether
Pakistan should have an Islamic form of
government or a democracy? For more than five decades
Pakistan is debating who is a muslim; and who should interpret
the Holy Book, Koran. For the common man in
Pakistan, fortunately or unfortunately, no
one in that country is able to come out with a clear-cut definition.
While this debate is on some Islamic
clergy, declaring themselves as final arbitrators on the subject, wanted to
super impose the Holy Book as they interpret, to be final.
Meanwhile Pakistani military through
the Commander-in-Chief cum President, wants to build
Pakistan into " a
liberal, forward looking state." What it means, nobody knows; and the
Islamic clergy in the country accuse the President that he is selling away the
country to western ideas at behest of the
US.
While this unending debate is on, a
section of the Pakistani elite think in terms of "destroying"
countries like
India for its plural and secular social
order- strangely enough does not find, anything wrong
with so called "atrocities" committed on Moslems in countries like
China.
While Pakistani polity is in a chaotic
condition,
Bangladesh is undergoing similar traumatic
experiences. Though founding fathers of
Bangladesh wanted the country to be secular,
it went through swift changes during its 34 years of independence, from
democratically elected governments to military rule and back to democracy.
In the process of these dramatic
changes, Islamic revivalism took its birth; and is debating whether Holy Book
should be the ultimate in governing the country. In addition radical Islamic
groups from across the globe are finding
Bangladesh as a safe haven. The present day
rulers are oscillating between secularism and Islam, thinking which will enable
them to retain political power.
Myanmar is another extreme case.
Initially started with democratic credentials, but it midway changed its course
to military rule.
Myanmar has the dubious distinction of
being part of the drug racketing Golden Triangle. To this now added the
Myanmar muslims joining hands with the drug mafia and radical
Islamic groups in the neighbouring
Bangladesh. With the result the country is
permanently under confrontation between the ruler and the ruled.
From Indian perspective, the situation
in Nepal too is not comfortable. King Gyanendra of
Nepal due to some ill advice decided to
dissolve the Parliament and took upon himself as the head of the government.
With already going through a political polarization on the process of
development, between leftist radicals, (Communist Party of
Nepal - Maoists) and other political
parties and the king, the situation becomes explosive. The rank and file of CPN
(Maoists) is swelling and a confrontation seems to be imminent. Already there
is speculation in some quarters that monarchy in
Nepal is dispensable.
While
Bhutan is relatively peaceful except for
the migrant Nepali population, in the higher echelons
China is creating anxieties. Though
Chinese economic boom is considered as a miracle, the division of population in
to rich and poor, with the later more in number; vulnerability of
China is slowly increasing. The Chinese
economic planners assumption that wealth would
automatically percolate to the grass root levels over a period of time has not
worked. With the result there is an all-round anxiety about future of
China and the authoritative system of
governance there.
Further westwards, the war ravaged
Afghanistan is trying to rebuild its country,
the ousted regime along with its supporters in neighbouring
Pakistan is trying to create mayhem in
Kabul. In 2005
Afghanistan becoming the biggest producer of
opium in the world, acquired the dubious distinction of leader of
Golden Crescent. Thus a new dimension has been
added to the
India's neighbouhood
politics.
In south,
Sri Lanka is perpetually in a state of
conflict for more than past two decades. The government in
Colombo, giving the
impression to the rest of the world that it is a lost case, could not check
terrorism and violence of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE).
All this indicates that from the
beginning
India could evolve a long-term
perspective and moulded its polity accordingly, but
the same cannot be said about its neighbours.
At one level
India's neighbourhood
still persists in the cold war politics. When rest of the world is debating
interdependence of the nation states,
India's neighbours
still persist in redrawing the map of
South Asia.
At another level
India's neighbours
are still not clear about the ideological moorings of their nation states. In
21 Century
Pakistan;
Afghanistan and
Bangladesh are debating whether they should
have Islam as an ideology for the governance of the state or LTTE trying to
draw a separate Eelam (homeland) for the Sri Lankan
Tamils show how the political elite of these debates are away from the dynamics
of the global order.
Still at another level, scant
attention is being paid by the ruling elite among
India's neighbours
on process of development. This automatically results in its own dynamics. The
demands being made by LTTE for the tsunami relief by the international
community is indicator of this trend.
In this not so comfortable situation,
what are
India's options? Since
Indian
Republic is making rapid strides in almost
every sphere, it is bound to create uncertainty among the ruling elite in these
countries. Some among these elite are trying to come to terms with ground
realities like
Sri Lanka, while others think in terms of acquiring
pressure points to acquire leverage vis--vis
India.
Pakistan and
Bangladesh are two examples in the second
category. This necessitates a carrot and stick approach when required and a
flexible approach to accommodate neighbours
aspirations to the extent possible by
New Delhi. Such an approach would require
sophisticated diplomatic skills among South Block mandarins to succeed in
evolving a composite policy for
South Asia. -CNF
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