INDIA AND THE IRAN IMBROGLIO
By Sreedhar
Every informed person on nuclear issues is aware
that Iran is still far away from acquiring the capability to manufacture nuclear
weapons. In fact, in the International Atomic Energy Commission's opinion, at
current tempo of nuclear fuel recycling, Iran may take seven to ten years to
acquire such a capability. Yet the US made it an international issue for the
past six months. And Indian leftists in their crusade against the US
imperialism, decided to join the controversy insisting that India must support
Iran and not the US.
First question that arises in examining this debate is why the UK and US are
raising the issue of Iran's nuclear capabilities at this point of time? While
searching for an explanation, one has to take in to cognizance post 9/11
developments. It is uniformly felt in Western strategic community that the
unresolved Israel-Palestine issue is the root cause of the Islamic world's
animosity towards the west. As the events are unfolding, the bottom line of
Israelis, whose force is to be reckoned within politics of Washington D.C. is,
that the Islamic world must accept that it has a right to exist as an
independent nation state.
The US, in its search for a solution to the Israel-Palestine dispute did manage
to mobilize majority of the Islamic world. Even the wavering Pakistanis have
fallen in line to open to Israel. But four countries of the Islamic world -
Iran, Iraq, Libya and Syria, refuse to cooperate with the US.
Iraqis have been militarily punished in April 2003. In the process, the US
managed to change the regime in Baghdad. Iraqis may take some more time to
evolve a political alternative to govern. But the developments in Iraq had their
demonstrative effect on Libya. Libya's supremo quietly brought peace with the US
and UK.
The left over bad boys are Iran and Syria. As the developments of the past few
months have shown, Damascus is reported to have been involved in a car bomb
attack on a former Lebanon Prime Minister. From the Islamic worlds standard this
is nothing unusual. Still, the UN decided to conduct a probe in to the incident
and came out with a report pinpointing Syrian involvement in the assassination.
The pressure is mounting on Damascus from the members of the UN. Suddenly, the
Syrian political elite, who are generally on an offensive tone, went defensive.
The chorus from the west is increasing day by day, that the "offenders should be
punished and Syria must apologise". This has placed Syria in a bad light in the
entire Islamic world.
In this backdrop look at the pressure on Iran by the US for the past one-year,
especially after the Iranian Presidential elections in May this year. During the
past four months, the verbose put out by the Western media on Iran's clandestine
nuclear programme is substantial. The jittery Iranians, still not realizing the
dynamics of the changing geopolitics, got in to a high pitch of Islamic fervour
renouncing the US and its allies.
After September 24, majority voted in IAEA in favour of referring Iran's case to
the UNSC, after a knee-jerk reaction Tehran realized its fault. In fact, by
India prevailing on the IAEA not to precipitate matters by taking a
confrontationist posture to the US, some time was bought to intensify the
negotiations between EU-3 (Germany, France and Britain) and Iran. Now slowly
both sides, Tehran and Washington D.C, are realizing dangers in precipitating
the 'crisis'.
The Iranians made the first move by publicly announcing that the Gas deal with
India is on, but they will review the trade relations with UK and Germany, not
realizing in such a situation that their nascent industrialization process can
get derailed. A British diplomat told me "if Tehran decides to import British
goods via Dubai and not directly from UK, it is alright by us."
The US responded quietly by announcing that they were not contemplating any
military action against Iran in the foreseeable future.
From all the indications at this point of time, the dialogue between EU-3 and
Iran will continue for some more time, with India too putting its diplomatic
skills to resolve the issue amicably.
What is surprising to every one is why the IAEA or the US or UK is not talking
about countries responsible for Iran coming this far in their nuclear ambitions.
From all accounts, we have in public that Pakistan and People's Republic of
China assisted Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons. If these two countries are
disciplined much of Iran's capabilities will be curtailed.
The next question that arises is, what are India's options to these
developments, after the furore created domestically for India voting in favour
of continuing the dialogue between EU-3 and Iran.
The leftist outburst without verifying the facts and reasons for India voting in
this fashion created embarrassing moments for Dr. Manmohan Singh's government.
As a European diplomat put it, one can be a revolutionary when he is a student
in places like JNU. When they become partners in a government, they should come
out of the JNU syndrome. Apparently, the new generation Indian leftists have not
moved out of the JNU syndrome.
The immediate plan of action should be to explain to our members of Parliament
the dynamics of the whole event and the line of actions being planned. As the
Indian Foreign Minister pointed out 'India is not a country that can be pushed
around by anybody', this should be repeatedly told in various forums to mobilize
a consensus on foreign policy.
This can be accompanied by gently advising Iran to come on board and accept
Israel's right to exist as a sovereign state along with Palestinians. Tehran
should not have any objection for such a pronouncement, because in principle the
aggrieved party, Palestinians, themselves accepted Israel. -CNF