PAKISTAN IN A FLUX
By Sita
Three weeks after the October 8 earthquake, it
became clear to every one that the Pakistani government lost its nerve in
handling relief and rehabilitation work to earthquake victims. Not realizing
that countries like the US, to whom Pakistan is looking for relief material, is
caught in natural calamities. Besides, the destruction from earthquake is
enormous, and with the signs of early winter (just a week away) the relief and
rehabilitation work, by any standards, is too big for a country like Pakistan.
Reports coming from Pakistan indicate that Gen. Pervez Muzharraf and his
government literally threw up their hands about this work. Pakistani Armed
Forces, not accustomed to disciplined relief and rehabilitation work, is looking
for ways and means to pass on the bulk to some one else. Some commentators are
even saying that jehadis are doing much better relief work than Pakistani armed
forces.
All these developments indicate three distinct trends in Pakistan's polity.
First, the developments of the past three weeks had shown that the West is
unlikely to come to Pakistan's aid to the extent Islamabad wanted it. The idea
of giving relief to a 'moderate Islamic state' like Pakistan is not finding too
many takers in the west. Will this attitude of the US and its allies create any
new fissures between Islamabad and Washington will be known in the coming weeks.
Besides, the international community, especially the US is advising Pakistan not
to stand on false prestige and accept all help that India is willing to give.
Pakistan realizes that such a development will have far reaching implications
for its case on Kashmir. If India opens its door, people in Pakistan Occupied
Kashmir will realize over the years how much the authorities in Islamabad have
neglected them. It can even spark a popular uprising in PoK complicating the
fragile control enjoyed by Islamabad on PoK.
Second, terrorist organizations operating from Muzfarabad did suffer
considerable amount of damage. Reports coming from PoK do say that some
important leaders of organizations like Jaish-e-Mohammad were killed in
earthquake.
Still, terrorist organizations are doing commendable relief in far-flung areas.
Some reports coming from PoK even say that terrorist organizations have visited
the areas that were by passed by the Pakistani army due to inhospitable terrain
and lack of transport and communications.
According to a report from Muzfarabad, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, formerly known as
Lashkar-e-Toiba, was the first group to initiate relief work to earthquake
victims in remotest areas near the LoC. A Jamaat spokesperson was quoted in the
local media as saying "it is time for a different Jehad by helping people in
their hour of need."
These relief operations by terrorist organizations received considerable amount
of appreciation from local residents. Many locals drew a comparison between the
indifferent Pakistani armed forces' relief operations and the committed jehadis'
relief work.
This extraordinary development introduced a new variable in Pakistan's polity.
Gen. Musharraf's policy of peace with India is in sharp contrast with the
jehadis, fighting for a cause, getting involved in relief work. In fact some
right wing commentators are reported to have said that in the need of hour
jehadis fought valiantly against all odds, while the government is meekly
accepting charity from Kafirs (like the US, UK and India.)
This places Gen. Musharraf in a disadvantageous position vis--vis his foreign
policy initiatives with the US and India.
Finally, Pakistan under Musharraf is slowly drifting towards accepting Indian
aid. Whatever may be the good relief being done by jehadis and the Pakistani
armed forces; it is becoming increasingly clear that people of PoK are welcoming
Indian relief. In the process the LoC is slowly becoming irrelevant, dividing
PoK from Srinagar.
Since relief work is not going to be a one-time affair and may continue for some
months to come, no one is able to stop the movement of population in both
directions. Over a period of time India's people to people diplomacy will start
materializing, questioning so many Pakistani actions including wars and
terrorism.
All this leads to one basic question, with Gen. Musharraf's failure to provide
adequate relief to the people of PoK, will the latter wishes to remain in
Pakistan. The jehadis and Pakistanis propaganda like 'Islam is in danger' or
'with draw the Indian army from J&K' now cannot stand the scrutiny of the
people.
In other words, nature's actions on October 8 are strengthening India's hold on
J&K as compared to Pakistan. Islamabad is in no position to counter it.
If this trend continues various terrorist organizations operating from Pakistan
are bound to direct their guns on Gen. Musharraf. This means in Musharraf's
six-year rule, for the first time his regime is coming under threat.
Will Gen. Musharraf renounce his peace process with India policy to save himself
and his power? If we go by the history of Pakistan, no leader making overtures
to India ever survived in power. If that is the case, Gen. Musharraf quickly
retracing his initiatives with India, may not save him.
The applause Indian army is receiving kudos for its relief and rehabilitation
work as compared to Pakistani armed forces, is going to place the later in a
delicate position in Pakistan's polity. Will it open up once again the entire
debate of 1950s and 1960s on the role of the armed forces in Pakistan's polity.
All this indicates that Pakistan is domestically in a flux. India may have to
line up various options to respond to any eventuality in Pakistan. And to avoid
any confusion like in IAEA vole on Iran, it is better to brief the opposition
and UPA leaders in advance about the likely situations in Pakistan as seen by
South Block. -CNF