PAKISTAN'S TERRORISM AFTER 8/10
By T.S.Rao
One of the most intriguing developments after the
devastating October 8 earthquake in Pakistan is, Islamabad pleading with the
international community to come to its aid. At the same time Islamabad taking
full 48 hrs to accept assistance, announced a couple hours after the tragedy
from its next-door neighbour, India. While India through official channels made
it quite clear that it can move in big way to help the people struck by
earthquake, Pakistani President, Gen. Musharraf was pleading with every news
channel that the country badly needed transport helicopters to reach far flung
areas in Pakistan occupied Kashmir.
The initial reaction in diplomatic circles for this extraordinary reaction by
Islamabad is, "well the people who matter are hung up on their personal egos.
How can a Pakistani General accept his sworn enemy, Indian army's, help, to save
his people" said one European diplomat. "It is typical of Pakistanis, that they
will accept aid, physical, material and financial from white man, yellow man and
not from fellow brown man, living next door. If the highly professional army
like India moved faster in, in fact India made the offer, it would have saved
much of the misery of earthquake hit people in PoK and cemented the peace
process between the two countries" said another US diplomat based in Delhi.
A source in South Block said, "give some time to Musharraf. He is toying with
idea but is not sure what will be the reaction of Jehadis. He already asked his
front men like APHC Chairman Omar Farooqi to talk in terms of Indo-Pak joint
operations".
The immediate question that haunted every body is why Pakistan is hesitant in
joint operations by India and Pakistan in quake hit areas?
One explanation could be that over the years PoK is the epic center of terrorism
and violence perpetuated by the Pakistani authorities in the neighbouring Indian
state of Jammu & Kashmir. Initial reports coming from PoK indicated that worst
hit districts and villages were those with terrorist camps, a monitored report
of a Lashkar-e-Toyaba activist said. "Many of our members have been killed. They
are in scores, while several others are still trapped under the rubble." There
were also reports that earthquake hit areas include Manshera region in NWFP. The
region is generally believed to be hot bed for Jehadis, it houses several
madrasas which also double up as training camps for Jehadis.
Similarly there were reports from places like Kotli, Bagh, Nikai and Muzfarabad
in PoK that suffered extensive damage due to earthquake.
In fact one report even said that the LeT office and hospital to treat the
injured Jehadis in Muzfarabad was destroyed completely. The Harkat ul
Mujahideens training centers at Balakot and Batrasi, JeM camp at Attock, Al-Badr's
set up at Oghi have been damaged considerably.
All these reports indicate that at least 2000-3000 terrorists stationed in and
around Muzarabad and waiting to infiltrate into Jammu & Kashmir have perished in
the October 8 earthquake. Therefore with the top echelons of terrorism intact in
Islambad, one can visualize that coming winter months will be used by managers
of terror industry in Pakistan and PoK to bring in new recruits and acclimatise
them for infiltration into Jammu & Kashmir in spring and summer next year.
With so many developments rapidly taking place, in the Pakistan's terror
industry, it is understandable that Islamabad is in no mood to welcome an
Indo-Pak joint operation in PoK with open hands. "He is bound to be hesitant. A
clever man like Musharraf knows that it is a high risk", said one MEA official.
Even before India moves in full strength, others are coming in to the region. At
the time of writing already the US, British and some European teams are on their
way to Muzfarabad. Along with them some of the charitable organizations in the
Islamic world too are landing in PoK. For the first time some of the
sympathisers and supporters of radical Islamic groups are going to face the
representatives from the Western Hemisphere. Both sides are bound to conduct
themselves cautiously, but the facts about terror structures are bound to come
out in to open.
The US helicopters are going to fly in hitherto forbidden areas of terror
industry in PoK, Northern Areas and NWFP. This means mapping of these areas are
bound to take place by "rescue workers" and the machines they fly. In such a
situation the US and others, will be able to verify Indian accusations about
Pakistan's terror industry. "Gen. Musharraf may, at one level, feel comfortable
that the US and its allies have come to his rescue in his need of the hour. At
the same time he is bound to feel uneasy with US watchful eyes surveying the
entire region, knowing in and out of the region. This will enable it to pinpoint
the Pakistan's terror industry spots." Said one west Asian diplomat. "Now the
chips are down and Pakistan is in a tight spot, one is not clear whether Gen.
Musharraf is happy or not. The Americans can do another clean up job like they
did in Afghanistan in Oct 2001for him," he added.
Whatever may be the damage to the terror industry in Pakistan at grass root
level, the leadership of various groups are scheming to reorganize themselves.
According to Indian intelligence sources, Syed Salahuddin, the Chairman of
United Jehad Council, is going to Mecca for Haj shortly. He is reported to have
invited the leadership of various terror outfits for a conclave in Mecca about
future strategy. Apparently the resources and organizational support to hold
such a conclave was provided by Pakistani intelligence agencies. Why Saudis are
allowing such a conclave on their soil is any body's guess.
Meanwhile, terrorists who moved to the forward areas of Line of Control tried to
take advantage of the break down of the system on the Indian side due to
earthquake. The Indian army reportedly intercepted five major infiltration
incidents by terrorists in which at least twenty terrorists were killed.
Realising that Army is still alert, various terrorist organisation seem to have
suspended their operations at least temporarily.
All this indicates that there are two parallel developments taking place among
terrorists. First, is the leadership of the terrorist network planning to
reorganize their strategy to make them still relevant in Jammu & Kashmir.
They seem to have realized that if at this point of time, they make any noises
the sympathy among locals will disappear. In addition, with so much external
presence in Pakistan, Pakistani agencies will find it difficult to support
terrorist groups either financially or through manpower.
Therefore, they may like to lie low for the time being. In the meantime,
terrorist outfits like LeT appear to be busy in utilizing this time, for
acquiring the needed punch to harass India with their terror machinery. In which
direction these terrorist outfits will move is to be carefully watched in the
coming weeks. -CNF