WHERE IS OSAMA
By Sreedhar
Before discussing Osama's whereabouts, three factors need to be noted.
First, since the beginning of 2005 Osama has not given any clue about his
whereabouts. He appears to have realized that the intensified US search for him
in Pakistan-Afghanistan can track him down even by a smallest clue given by him.
With the result his video appearances have been completely vanished; and even
audio is a rare commodity. He is not even making any press statements or giving
interviews to media which he used to do earlier. Though there are unconfirmed
reports that he is in touch with his cadres through an underground newspaper,
nothing has come out in public knowledge. However, such an exercise is possible
because no leader would like to stay away from his cadres.
The media reports for the past two years from Baghdad indicate that al Qaida has
started its operations in Iraq. In fact the US invasion of Iraq in April 2003 is
supposed to have given a new lease of life to Osama bin Laden and his outfit, al
Qaida. There were unconfirmed reports that he is shutting between Iraq and
Pakistan.
After the US invasion of Iraq enormous amount of sympathy and goodwill was
generated to Osama and al Qaida. This enabled the latter to move around,
arousing the people to fight the Kafirs (the US).
Lastly, the change of guard in Saudi Arabia appears to have gone in favour of
Osama. After the coming of King Abdullah, the terrorist attacks in and around
Saudi Arabia have come down. This made many to believe that the new dispensation
in Riyadh has come to some understanding with al Qaida.
There is intense speculation among counter insurgency operations experts across
the globe whether Osama bin Laden presumed to be in PoK and Northern Areas of
Pakistan, is dead or alive. The areas he is supposed to have been moving around
have all been ravaged by October 8 earthquake.
According to one theory, Osama's hide out too must have been ravaged by
earthquake. And immediately he must have moved out to a safer place, like in the
adjacent Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China.
In October 2004 there were reports that Osama and the Chinese struck a deal
about Uighur muslims. The understanding was presumed to be that Osama would
pacify Uighur muslims and convince them to support the Beijing regime; and in
return Osama will be provided sanctuary in China, a country with which the US
cannot take any liberties.
Later there were reports that Osama, away from his cadres, started feeling
isolated in China. He then moved to Northern Areas in Pakistan and then to
Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Pakistani authorities including Gen. Musharraf often made contradictory
statements about Osama. Some times they said he is dead and some times he is
alive. With the US surveillance technology fully operational from about June
2004, Osama gave up his public appearances through video or communicating with
his comrades through telephone.
The last reports in Dec 2004 indicated that Osama is operating from his hideout
in Northern Areas through personal couriers.
If Osama and his men were any where in the epic center zone of the earthquake,
he must have moved to safer places quickly, to avoid any detection of his
whereabouts. One place still safe for him could be China.
Some credence is given to this speculation because of reported pressure of
Beijing on Islamabad against allowing the US to build monitoring and
surveillance bases in places like Gilgit and Chitral.
Another school of thought believes that Osama moved out of Pakistan-Afghanistan-PoK
zone and moved to the Saudi Arabia-Iraq- Syria belt. One Western Intelligence
official even observed, "his admirers must have moved him quickly to safer
places in West Asia, if he has not already moved out."
He also said, that in the post October 8 situation, Osama must have been upset
with Gen. Musharraf's policy of allowing the Americans to invade Pakistan in the
name of providing relief aid to earthquake victims. What Musharraf has done is
against Osama's philosophy of not accepting any aid from Kafirs by an Islamic
country like Pakistan.
Will Osama give any directives to the forth-coming terrorist conclave in Mecca
about political set up in Pakistan? Is a question to be pondered over by Osama
watchers.
If Osama had given any directive in the coming weeks, one should notice some
indications to this effect. Some speculation is going round, both in Islamabad
and New Delhi, that with a large chunk of Pakistani army being admirers of Osama,
it is not difficult for the al Qaida chief to destabilize the Gen. Musharraf
government. Already enough voices are coming in to open about the way Pakistani
army is conducting relief operations to earthquake victims. This can act as a
flash point for a regime change in Pakistan.
In such a scenario, Osama, al Qaida and its protg Taliban can stage a
comeback. This means hard times are ahead for Pakistan and Afghanistan.
However, the world has not heard anything till now about Osama, or al Qaida
participating in any relief operations in the earthquake ravaged areas of
Pakistan. Is it not strange? -CNF