WILL RETURN OF ZAHEER SHAH HELP KARZAI?
By Sreedhar
Before analysing the implications of ex-King Zaheer Shah's return to Kabul from
Rome last week, three factors need to be noted. First, after more than hundred
days of governance by the Hamid Karzai government, strangely enough, the
Pashtoon factor emerged as a pressure point against his government. Pashtoon's,
who have long been rulers in Afghanistan, started feeling that they have been
marginalized. The entire fight against Taliban by the Northern Alliance got
clearly projected as a fight of Pashtoons versus non-Pashtoons. Some
commentators do feel that this clever spin to the events was given by the
pro-Taliban elements in the Pakistani establishment to keep Islamabad in the
picture.
This becomes all the more visible with Taliban cadres taking refugee in the
villages and mountains on Pakistan - Afghanistan border. To what extent the
Americans will allow "moderate Taliban" into the new dispensation has to be
seen. In fact, that will decide whether Pakistan has used this pressure point
successfully or not. Whether coming in of more Pashtoons into the interim
cabinet will strengthen Hamid Karzai or not vis--vis his Northern Alliance
partners is also uncertain.
Second, Hamid Karzai did remarkably well in projecting himself as a suave,
sophisticated person who is out to rebuild his country. But his autonomy in
functioning is getting restricted due to the stigma that he was chosen by the
Americans. Karzai critics project him as an agent of 'Satan' (read Americans).
The Afghan elite are fearing that their own small fiefdoms will get eroded, if
the American plans are allowed to succeed. This clash of interests of the Afghan
elite and UN - sponsored plans for Afghanistan will be sorted out amicably or
not in the coming weeks is to be seen.
Right at the moment UN-sponsored programmes like "back to school" for children
may appear good on paper, but will in no way lead to the much desired national
reconciliation. Many Afghans feel, if the economic reconstruction promised by
the international community starts, if will provide gainful employment to many
"War" veterans.
But on one pretext or another the inflow of aid is getting delayed; and the
traditional warlords are coming back to the scene to reassert their authority.
How the impasse will be broken is not known to anybody. As a journalist friend,
who has just returned after a fortnight stay in Afghanistan, told me, "Everyone
seems to be concentrating on Kabul and Kandahar. The entire international
community's focus is on these two cities. In all the other places, the warlords
are playing their games with each one trying to undercut the other.
Lastly, the US plans for security of South West Asia started ringing alarm bells
all around the region. The US President plea to his allies, that Afghanistan
needs a marshal plan to rebuild, is being seen as an indication that Americans
are here to stay at least for the next 10-15 years. Many are already raising the
pitch even to say that after the operation Desert storm, the US created
Kurdistan. Now, after the Operation Enduring Freedom, will they create
Pakhtoonistan as a corridor through Afghanistan - Pakistan to the land looked
Central Asian Republics and Afghanistan. The Gwador port facilities in Pakistan
can provide the needed outlet to the sea for gas pipeline. Such an arrangement
will neutralise the US perceived hostile Iran considerably.
Apparently, the US considers that by being physically present and managing the
affairs of South West Asia, they can install a moderate Muslim state and have a
sobering influence on the entire Islamic world. How for the US will succeed in
this venture is difficult to predict at this point of time.
In this peculiar backdrop, the return of King Zaheer Shah, after 29 years in
exile, is being seen by many in the strategic community, as an effort to
consolidate the Hamid Karzai position. Every one is expecting that the Loya
Jirga being planned in the coming weeks will extend the term of Karzai for
another 18 months and induct some more Pashtoons into the existing cabinet.
Here, the managers of Afghan policy in the US State Department are working on
the assumption that Loya Jirga, presided by the former King, will provide the
much needed legitimacy. It may be recalled that Loya Jirga was convened by even
Taliban in September after the terrorist attacks on WTC and Pentagon to decide
the future of Osama bin Laden. To put it simply, Loya Jirga is an institution in
Afghanistan, where the elders from the various tribes and regions would give
their considered opinion on various issues. The system of Loya Jirga lost much
of its importance and authority as almost every ruler in Kabul started convening
it to perpetuate his rule. In fact, it is no longer elders from the tribes who
are called, but the handpicked ones are summoned by the convenors to give a
certain amount of sanctity to their decisions.
The Loya Jirga going to be convened by the ex-King is reported to be big - some
reports even quoted 500 delegates. But the decisions will not have any profound
impact on the Afghan polity. The legitimacy which Karzai is looking for will
come only by the speed with which he could bring a national reconciliation and
economic development.
At another level, the induction of "moderate Pashtoons" can start only if the
Taliban - al - Qaeda leadership is nabbed. For this Pakistan has to come forward
with an offering of cooperation to the Karzai government. Already have come
signals from which sent Gulbuddin Hekmatyar to Kabul. He was expelled from
Teheran and landed in Peshawar. Already the people responsible for the
assassination plot against Zaheer Shah are reported to be from the Hekmatyar
camp; and if Indian analysts assessment is to be believed, men, money and
materials were provided to Hekmatyar by his Pakistani friends. They in turn are
reported to have received the orders from a Middle East Kingdom.
All this indicates that the external players have not stopped their games in
Afghanistan. The first round of visits by Karzai seems to have just broken the
ice, but has not yielded the needed political dividends. In these circumstances,
though Afghanistan has come down in importance in the Great Powers' gameplan,
for South and South West Asia, the stability there seems to be far away. -CNF
(The author is a senior research associate at the Institute for Defence Studies
and Analyses, New Delhi)