U.S. CONDONES MUSHARRAF'S REFERENDUM
By Sreedhar
On April 9, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who came to power through a bloodless coup in
October 1999, announced a national referendum to declare himself as President of
Pakistan for the next five years. The date of the referendum has been set for
April 30.
The immediate question that arises is why Gen. Musharraf wants to go for this
referendum. As of today there is no political party, which can challenge his
authority. Even the much talked about Pakistani armed forces seem to have fallen
in line and accepted his leadership for the time being.
That leaves the outside world. Even here, the Islamic world accepts him as a
legitimate ruler. Unlike the Commonwealth of Independent Countries, the
Organisation for Islamic Conference has not expelled Pakistan from its
membership. The problem seems to be the perceptions of the Western countries,
which incidentally happen to be the main donors to Pakistan.
Some commentators have tried to compare the proposed referendum of Musharraf
with that of Gen. Zia in 1984. It may be recalled at that time too Pakistan was
a frontline state in the US war against communism. The Western aid was pouring
into Pakistan and Gen. Zia seized the opportunity to legitimate his rule through
a referendum.
Now Pakistan is a frontline state in the US war against terrorism. Again the US
and its allies are pouring aid into Pakistan. According to tentative estimates,
between Sept. 2001 and March 2002, Pakistan received aid from various financial
institutions and individual countries of the West to the tune of $ 2 billion.
Therefore, at popular level Gen. Musharraf's policies appear to be yielding
dividends. Apparently, he wants to use well this opportunity to consolidate his
position in Pakistan polity.
Simultaneously, the General's cooperation with the US in the latter's war
against terrorism is unprecedented. The US investigating agencies are free to
roam around anywhere in the country and conduct search operations. The
Faisalabad incident of April 6 is one example. The US Federal Bureau of
Investigation sleuths, with the help of some locals, conducted raids and
arrested people. The local police and Pakistani government, by remaining silent,
gave their tacit approval to the whole operation. According to one observer, now
the management of national security in Pakistan is totally controlled by the US.
Even issues like who should be the corps commander and where in the armed forces
are decided by the local US Embassy.
Therefore, at regular intervals, the Bush Administration officials certify that
Gen. Musharraf is cooperating fully with them in their war against terrorism.
This good conduct certificate from the US automatically implies that the people
in Washington D.C. will not object to whatever else Musharraf does in other
spheres like domestic politics. This gave him the confidence that he can do
whatever he wants and the US will not object to it. On issues like the
referendum on his continuation in office as President, Gen. Musharraf expects
America will support him. Like many others, the General also believes that the
US war on terrorism will continue for quite some time and he can mobilize
support for it domestically.
If this is the logic on which Gen. Musharraf is going for referendum to appoint
himself as President, what will be his national agenda? One can visualize a
three-point agenda he may be planning.
Revive the shattered economy with external help. This he has achieved to a
limited extent by getting Pakistani debt rescheduled. Though he pleaded for
writing off the debt, like the US did in the case of Egypt immediately after
Camp David Agreement in late 1970s, the US refused to oblige him: with the
result the debt burden has been postponed.
Since militarily, either through a proxy or conventional war, Pakistan cannot
resolve the Kashmir issue in its favour, it forces the US to step in to mediate.
Till now, the US has refused to get involved. One is not certain to what extent
it will oblige.
Lastly, Gen. Musharraf is going to make the Pakistani armed forces part and
parcel of the governance of the state of Pakistan. Since this is an internal
affair of Pakistan, no outside power will object.
Two other related questions that come up in this context are: who will support
Gen. Musharraf after the referendum? It is a fact that there is no worthwhile
political party in Pakistan. The leaderships of the two main political parties,
Pakistan Peoples Party and Pakistan Muslim League (N), are in exile. The second,
third and fourth level of leadership of these two parties was sufficiently
neutralized or marginalized on one count or the other. Like his predecessors,
Field Marshal Ayub Khan and Gen. Zia, Musharraf, before he assumed absolute
power, has to ensure that there is no opposition to him. Even the religious
parties, on whom Gen. Zia banked after coming to power and Gen. Musharraf
flirted with them recently, are hostile to the Pakistani military in general and
Gen. Musharraf in particular for his shift in policy towards Afghanistan. In
other words, Gen. Musharraf's support constituency is going to be, exclusively,
the armed forces whose loyalties can change at a moment's notice.
The second question: how long the Americans will continue to support this tin
pot dictator? If we go by the past history of Pak-US relations and the US
policies towards dictatorship regimes, only as long as he is useful. The instant
domestic opposition gets organized; the dictator is always disowned or distanced
from the US.
In these circumstances, the opponents of Gen. Musharraf allow him to commit
mistakes. No armed forces anywhere in the world ever ruled a country
successfully for long years, without creating restlessness in the civil society
after sometime. Gen. Musharraf is no exception. In addition, he is having the
unique distinction of losing a war (Kargil war of 1999), and then rising to the
high office of President of Pakistan through not so honest means.
Therefore, he will continue to remain in power as long as the US wants him to be
at the helm in Pakistan. Once the US completes its mission in this part of the
world, like they did with his predecessors, they will be dumping him into the
dustbin of history.
Meanwhile, the pot is boiling with Pashtoons in Pakistan feeling that the
masters in Islamabad have betrayed them. The mujahideens sent to Afghanistan and
India are coming back home to wage a war against the elite. There is an
all-round uncertainty in the country with no one able to speculate which way the
events will unfold. In these circumstances, Gen. Musharraf declaring himself, as
a President for five years, through a referendum, looks like another passing
phase in the turbulent history of Pakistan. -CNF
(The author is a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Defence Studies
and Analyses, New Delhi)