A TAILOR-MADE CIVILIAN GARB FOR GEN. MUSHARRAF
By M. R. Rao
It no longer appears impossible but quite probable
that Gen Parvez Musharraf, CEO of Pakistan, may don civilian garb before the
year is out. And his search for a pliable civil prop is coming to an end with
the anti-Nawaz faction of the Pakistan Muslim League's radiness to do his
bidding. What this means for a layman in Pakistan is unclear, but it would
certainly satisfy everyone at home and abroad - from the Supreme Court, which
tries to remind anyone who is willing to hear that judiciary is truly
independent; the donor nations, which are keen to be seen as the champions of
democracy and the army which wants to retain the levers of power.
The constitutional coup, as a commentator prefers to term the emerging scenario,
will see Pervez Musharraf move into the presidential palace, while his acolyte
occupies the prime minister's post. Realpolitic at full play! Admittedly, the
General has not so far spoken his mind. Equally importantly, he has not ruled
out the possibility we are talking about. What does this imply? It implies that
the highest Pakistan forum, the committee of the corps commanders, is seized of
the issue and at an appropriate time it will go public with its plans. Its
immediate concern is not testing waters but putting in place a system that would
make the present regime immune in all respects to the fallout of decisions it
has taken. Gen Pervez Musharraf himself said so in so many words at his recent
media interaction. Since he has the mandate of the gun, he would like to ensure
that those who wield the gun alone hold the destiny of the country.
In others words, the President, on the advice of the army, will exercise the
veto and overrule the prime minister and parliament. A return to pre-Nawaz days
in several respects! This exercise in Musharraf's lexicon means balancing the
power between the power brokers and results in a "guided" democracy needed for a
backward country reeling under the impact of sectarian violence, courtesy the
Taliban. It is too early to say whether Musharraf would be
able to make the changes in the Pakistan constitution. There is already a hue
and cry from political parties and the media. The protests are not loud, only
miffled voices, given the fact that freedom of speech (including the press) are
under a threat. Musharraf's moves would depend on how the economy responds.
But if he succeeds in his mission objectives, about which there is very little
doubt, the "guardians" will be able to control easily the levers of power and
dictate policies to the elected representatives who would be mere pawns. Then,
neither the restoration of the suspended provincial assemblies nor fresh
elections, which the Supreme Court said should be held before October next year,
will pose any problem. In the past, the General used to reject outright any
question about revival of the assemblies and the suspended parliament. This time
around, he is offering no comment.
What does that mean. Put simply, he has worked out his moves to the last detail.
The pro-Musharraf churning in the Muslim League and reports that Mian Azhar, a
strong opponent of Mian Nawaz Sharif, is the chosen one for the prime
ministership lend credence to this conclusion. Why does the regime repeatedly
deny plans to go civilian? Naturally, it would not like to have any slip-up,
particularly when the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD) is itching for
a combat. Moreover, it is essential to quietly convert the parliamentarians to
its cause.
Once the numbers fall into the lap, it will become easy to revive parliament and
go through the constitutional "niceties". Reading the writing on the wall, not
many professional politicians will stand in the way. Even if they dare to
resist, in the worst possible scenario, brute force and lungpower can see their
exit, as happened umpteen times in the past, particularly during the second
innings of Mian Nawaz Sharif.
This political engineering by Musharraf is going to have a "beneficial"
fall-out. Docile legislatures and subservient parliamentarians will make him
their new president without a murmur of protest. Admittedly, there is reason for
every public-spirited Pakistani to worry about the emerging centralized power
structure and its impact as much on the governance of the country as on the
inbuilt ethnic fault-lines.
Army has always been a factor in Pakistan like America. That is why the
overthrow of Mian Nawaz by Musharraf two years ago and the execution of Zulfikar
Ali Bhutto by Zia-ul-Haq two decades ago evoked no protests. What is now planned
is more than making the army arbiter of Pakistan's destiny. Put simply, it
sounds a requiem to democracy in Pakistan and put in motion the slow death of
Muhammed Ali Jinnah's creation.
General Saheb's are known to be good masters in the barracks, not in seats of
governance. Musharraf's regime bears out this truism. The economy is in a mess.
Donors are not happy with the way aid is spent. Japan, which has the longest
purse strings, is forcing the regime to sign the CTBT on the dotted line to
receive its largesse, though the word CTBT is a dead letter. The most docile of
donors, the Asian Development Bank, says it will link future disbursement of
soft loans with zero rates to good governance. As the Dawn observed editorially
on March 30, poor project implementation, inefficient water management, a
painfully slow pace of privatisation, a small tax base and burgeoning current
expenditure have made economic growth pathetically so low that it cannot sustain
the population growth rate of 2.3 per cent. High debt burden is eating into the
vitals of the economy; lack of business confidence has hit the investment
climate. The tendency of the regime, like all its predecessors to cut
development budgets to cover up revenue shortfalls has complicated matters at a
time the countryside is in the grip of lawlessness and sectarian violence is
claiming more lives every passing day.
It is no surprise therefore the ADB has offered soft loans as an incentive to
Islamabad to turn a new leaf through good governance. And, again rightly, though
to the dismay of the powers that be in Islamabad, the ADB has decided to make
lending linked to performance. The ADB has offered to work closely with IMF and
the World Bank to bring down poverty level through a medium-term Poverty
Reduction and Growth programme. Implicit in ADB slippages, the aid flow would
dry up.
Certainly, for Musharraf critics at home, the ADB warning is sweet music. It
also punctures the official claim that Pakistan is a turnaround scrip. Thre is
another question, howsoever uncomfortable it may be for the donor countries. And
it must be addressed in all seriousness by all developing countries, India
including. It is about who decides the pace and direction of growth. Can the
donor countries and donor agencies call the shots without any accountability?
The question of accountability, it is true, has no relevance in the context of
Pakistan, where all that matters and not the voice of the elected
representatives. In that sense, Pakistan is a different case.
In another respect also, Pakistan is a different kettle of fish. It is essential
that the Brettonwood twins and their clones remember this reality while pursuing
their line to protect their own bottomline and shareholders interests. Pakistan
is always a very obedient recipient of aid, willing to give the nod for any
conditionality without a murmur of protest. Inflow of first few tranches and
semblance of a breather make Islamabad turn a cold eye towards anyone, the most
benevolent including. History has a tendency of repeating itself. Undoubtedly in
Pakistan! - CNF